Weather expectations for Winter 2010-11 Published Sept. 29, 2010 By Airman 1st Class Janine Thibault 354th Fighter Wing Public Affairs EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE, Alaska -- The leaves have taken on fall colors and begun to shed from the branches, the temperature has dropped and the first snowflakes have made their descent - but what can be expected for the winter to come? Weather plays a significant role in peoples' day-to-day lives which makes it beneficial for them to maintain a close eye on forecasts. There are different tools available that can be used to predict the severity of winter or extreme conditions of summer. The National Climatic Predictions Center is one tool used by the 354th Operations Support Squadron weather flight. By analyzing the predictions from the NCPC, they have formed a forecast for the winter ahead. "The rest of 2010 through early 2011, information received suggests that the weather will be influenced by La Niña," said Donald Gossel, a 354th OSS weather flight meteorologist. "La Niña is a contained pool of cooler water near the equatorial regions that impacts weather patterns. Since the ocean currents dictate weather patterns La Niña can play an immense role in the weather conditions. Alaska will be north of the warmer weather path that will not move inland therefore having very little warming impact on Alaska." This means that Alaska will be colder than the normal seasonal temperature. There should be a 10 to 15 degree colder trend so residents will possibly see 50 below in the timeframe of mid-December to mid-February. Due to a need for equilibrium in the atmosphere it is also expected that Alaska will see more snow. Last year there was a lot of early snow followed by a Chinook wind that swept in and melted it all. "After the snow melted from the Chinook wind in November there was not that much snow fall, leaving some very unhappy snowmobile riders," said Mr. Gossel. Because of the cooler temperatures there should be more snow since the cold temperatures wring out any moisture in the air. In addition, there should be less Chinook winds this year helping the snow stay in place longer. Colder temperatures will bring about winter phenomena including ice fog. Ice fog occurs when the cold air causes exhaust fumes to linger frozen in the air until warmer temperatures melt the particles and they can evaporate. This fog-like haze hovers low over high traffic areas and gets thicker the longer it is there. With this being a colder winter, the ice fog could accumulate due to travel causing low visibility on the roads. To better prepare for this winter, it's helpful for those on base to know the official temperature. In the winter, the temperature that determines whether or not people can plug in their cars to the head bolt outlets is based off the OSS weather flight's forecast. At temperatures of 10 degrees below zero or colder the base populace may use the HBOs. By calling 377-6127, people can listen to the base weather station's forecast and observation recording to know the temperature that the Security Forces Squadron will go by. Knowing the weather can also be more convenient. "Weather information will assist people as they start to plan for activities. If they hear that a cold snap is coming and it is already 10 below it may change people's mind to support the activity they would like to do,"said Mr. Gossel. This is also helpful to those that live off-base so they know the conditions before starting their drive to work and ensure they are safely dressed for the conditions among other things. Winter is coming, and with the assistance of the Airmen of weather flight we can all be prepared to face the challenges ahead.