More than cloudy skies to a forecast

  • Published
  • By Airman 1st Class Janine Thibault
  • 354th Fighter Wing Public Affairs
EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE, Alaska --  The 354th Operations Support Squadron weather flight is more than just an average weather station. The team of nine weathermen provides extensive insight for mission weather support for the 354th Fighter Wing, 18th Aggressor Squadron, 168th Air Refueling Wing and 210th Rescue Squadron Detachment 1.

Predictions made by the weather flight for the military differ from the forecast of local community weather broadcast stations in the information gathered and given.

"We don't say it's partly cloudy. We say how many clouds and at what height, when they appear, when they'll go away, how much visibility is predicted and so on," said Donald Gossel, a 354th OSS weather flight meteorologist.

The weather station provides support for nearly 254,000 cubic miles of airspace. When the weather goes bad, it can influence many facets of the mission. For aircrews who do a lot of high flying, the Airmen look at the weather at 20,000 feet and above and detail whether the pilots will be in or out of the clouds.

"We are responsible for resource protection. The weather flight does everything from "golf" forecast and traffic ability forecasting, to solar impacts and activity trajectory for missiles," said Mr. Gossel.

Many members of the team have watched the progression to newer technologies. Weather has evolved from the days of wall-to-wall computers and satellite charts that had to be colored by hand, to several small computers in a more centralized area.

"Visual elements say it's cloudy and experience tells me there are 27 states of the sky with clouds which can also represent weather patterns and change. I see one cloud moving in and I know I've got a certain pattern developing. This visual information is used in conjunction with satellite imagery, numerical and graphical models. Models can't always predict localized affect, that's where human factor comes into play," said Mr. Gossel.

"Weather is more art than science in my opinion," said Master Sgt. Gary Lam, the 354th Operations Support Squadron weather flight NCOIC, in reference to Mr. Gossel's description of the prediction process.

"The critical portion of our influence on the base lies within our resource protection," said Sergeant Lam. "We issue watches, warnings and advisories that enable people to do their jobs."

Cold weather and heavy snow warnings and advisories give Airmen a heads-up as to what needs to be done to protect themselves and equipment. Heavy snow advisories allow the snow barn to stay on top of the snow and clear the runway or the roads so people can get to work. Lightning is a big concern, explained Sergeant Lam.

"For example, mechanics don't want to be exposed with tools that make them a target and refuelers don't want to be refueling while there's the potential of lightning. In the extreme scenarios that's where the critical part of our job comes in because otherwise things are fine," said Sergeant Lam.

"Predicting the weather is a big part of mission planning, as pilots are better able to expect certain conditions on target or at their destination such as turbulence and then they can plan accordingly," said Mr. Gossel.

"Weather patterns could change," said Mr. Gossel. "There are many local effects that induce weather patterns the pilots should be aware of. The weather flight lets them know if there are conditions that will need their attention. With the information they are given, they can determine if they should plan another route or cancel the flight."

According to Air Force standard, there is a minimum accuracy rate that has to be maintained. The weather flight must provide predictions within an 85 percent accuracy rate.

"We usually exceed that rate consistently by 11 percent. At 96 percent accuracy, we have a good rate. That can be attributed to the training and experience within the shop," said Sergeant Lam.

Although predicting the weather may seem to be a "cut-and-dry" task, the weather flight works closely in conjunction with other flights to sustain operations and resource protection while maintaining a respectable record of accuracy.

In the end, the 354th OSS weather flight keeps Airmen aware of the weather conditions to ensure Eielson Airmen and civilians can work safely.